By Andleeb Abbas in Daily Times, Dec 24, 2022
The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and analyst
Armed attack. Daylight terror. Hostages. Killings. Blasts in Quetta, Wana and Bannu. This is not 2012 but 2022. They are back. They are threatening. They are spreading. Islamabad-based institute PIPS (Pakistan institute of Peace studies) has published a paper that claims that a 51 per cent increase in terrorism has occurred in Pakistan since the Afghan Taliban took over the government in Kabul. Details specify that 433 people were killed and 719 wounded in 250 terrorist attacks in Pakistan between 15 August 2021 and 14 August 2022. In the corresponding year between 15 August 2020 and 14 August 2021, the country witnessed 165 attacks that killed 294 people and injured 598 others. But the recent ingression in taking the CTD officers hostage in Bannu and Laki Marwat etc is serious and needs utmost and immediate attention.
The world has long recognised that national security is not just a matter of having armed soldiers guarding your borders. National security encompasses economic, energy and environmental security amongst other areas. Food insecurity, as seen in the past, can bring about security risks of the worst nature. Pakistani governments have acknowledged this in the past but never really addressed it, documented it or implemented it. An excellent attempt was made by the Imran Khan government in January 2022 to launch Pakistan’s first comprehensive policy dialogue document. The NSP (National Security Policy) highlighted the necessity of Islamabad’s intent to place geoeconomics rather than geopolitics at the core of Pakistan’s national security. The policy also put climate change and human development at the centre of development. The policy time frame was from 2022 to 2026. Ever since the new government has come into place, nothing has been heard of this framework. The present security vulnerability is not just a rise of the TTP but a fall of the focus on developing an integrated response to the security threats to Pakistan due to the following gaps:
- Geo Economics and Geo Politics-The National Security Policy document acknowledged that the whole focus has to be on having a strong economy. Decisions previously were made on geo politics that cost the economy heavily. The geopolitical decision to go into the war on terror cost the Pakistani economy $120 billion aside from a human loss of 70000 lives. Thus, the shift is to forge economic and trade relationships regardless of what the other international player’s agenda is. In this regard, the focus shifted from aid to trade. The policy direction was to shift from mature markets to emerging markets. From dependence on the west to a diversion to Central Asia. That is why when the oil prices went out of the roof, it was collectively decided by all stakeholders that cheaper sources of oil will be pursued, even if it meant going to Russia. There were objections raised by the Europeans over it, but only to Pakistan. The Indians had already purchased oil and gas from Russia despite objections. That decision to go to Russia was based on the shift in policy agreed upon by all major stakeholders involved. This was also in line with energy security being the main component of the economic development drive. What happened later has put all this effort on the back burner. The new government with the new finance minister Miftah Ismail denied that the possibility of purchasing oil and gas existed from Russia as the US may punish Pakistan for it. The new finance minister Ishaq Dar has said it does exist, but there seems to be immense confusion in it as Bilawal has given contrary statements in the US. Meanwhile, the growth rate has crashed from six per cent in April 2022 to one per cent in November 2022. Pakistan is desperate for dollars again and this has created huge national security risks. The Afghani currency is now twice as strong as the Pakistani rupee; creating a situation where the smuggling of dollars is almost impossible to control.
- Foreign Policy-where art thou-National security is directly linked to foreign affairs and international relations. The PDM parties are having an internal struggle for control between PMLN and PPP. Tariq Fatemi who was an advisor to PDM in foreign affairs was rejected by PPP. There seems to be no direction and cohesion between the PDM parties on major issues. While Ishaq Dar has announced the purchase of oil from Russia, Bilawal in the US has denied it. With the border situation so sensitive, Bilawal Bhutto should have gone to Afghanistan. Instead, the Minister of State Hina Rabbani Khar was sent. There were a lot of photo optics of a woman landing in the Taliban land, but while she was there, attacks emanating from Afghanistan were happening in Pakistan. That itself was indicating the futility of the visit. This is a situation where the prime minister and the foreign minister should be immediately going to Afghanistan and dealing with the situation. The cross-border firing on citizens of Pakistan is serious and requires a meeting of the National Security Committee in Pakistan. The prime minister has not bothered to call it letting the terrorists have almost an open field with no proactive steps from our side.
- Intelligence leakages and spillages-The most perturbing thing about the security issues is the rather porous information leakages that we have witnessed from the prime minister’s office in the last few months. First, it was the dark web threat posed by some hacker, who somehow had skirted all security protocols and had managed to break into thousands of secured PM Office conversations. There was an investigation into it but the government never really revealed whether they had done a deal with this hacker or caught him. Where was he from and what amount of leakages did he possess are of supreme importance to understanding the extent of the damage. If they can hack the PM office, they can hack the intelligence offices too. The problem with the government and the ex-COAS was that they were so embroiled in the internal conflict situation that they had no time for the external conflict response. Such consistent cyber and terror attacks are never an overnight thing and involve some security breach to make the terrorists come into police stations at Bannu without being anticipated or detected.
- Regional Security Dialogue-What was needed but is still missing is an immediate regional security dialogue between Pakistan, and Afghanistan and some mediation from China and Central Asian states. Conflict on borders is dangerous for all bordering neighbours. Pakistani soldiers have, and are, giving their lives in this conflict. It is important that the foreign office, along with our security agencies, develops a network of the main countries to have a peace conference. Without a high-level moot on this issue, the terror attacks will multiply. At the moment, they may be more in KP and Baluchistan, but we have seen in the past how quickly they can grip the whole country. Such negligence raises questions. That, maybe insecurity suits some government extension plan.
The problem with the government is that their focus is their security rather than national security. All their meetings, conferences and dialogues are based on how to save their government. The 76-member mammoth cabinet is only discussing ways and means of disqualifying Imran Khan; creating hurdles in the dissolution of the assemblies and cancelling all elections possible. With this focus on saving themselves, saving the country seems to be a matter of least priority. Enemies, whether on the border or across the border, can see a weak government; a crashing economy; growing public disenchantment and that is when they close the circle. A government living day-to-day can never make strategic decisions. A government that is itself highly insecure will create insecurities all around. Thus, Wanted-A government with a clear, substantial and secure mandate.
https://dailytimes.com.pk/1043160/when-insecurity-becomes-security/
