China has balanced India’s aggressive stance on the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) as the dispute over Kashmir heats up, and they were smart about it. China has blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra river as part of a major hydroelectric project, whose construction began in 2014.Thus, rather than projecting it as a security measure in favour of an ally, their reasoning is economic.And while we can be cautiously optimistic that China took these measures for its own economy rather than for our protection, even the Indian media sees it as a balancing act rather than a purely economic venture.
We have the CPEC to thank for this.China, even if it has no concern for the friendship with Pakistan, has to protect its investments in Pakistan, and a war will not be good for profits.The Chinese project includes construction of two power stations which will help create energy and rail networks towards Nepal, another country with the potential to become a Chinese ally, breaking away from the economic shackles of Indian dependency.
The other concern is that the dams will not really impact India as much as we think they will and China has maintained that its dams do not restrict the flow of water towards India.
Firstly, just the symbolism of a blockage should help quell the segments of the Indian population that have been baying for war.
Secondly, the argument is that only Indian states affected by a blockage of the Brahmaputra would be the remote Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, and this would end up hurting Bangladesh much more than India.At the very least this should give Bangladesh some food for thought.India cannot protect it from such a calamity and its decision to alienate Pakistan, and by extension China, with its pro-India ruling party and rhetoric will not do it any favours.
Lastly, the argument of minimal damage may not hold much water at all.In June 2000, a dam burst in Tibet causing flash floods downstream in Arunachal Pradesh.
The floods resulted in 30 casualties and seriously damaged Indian infrastructure.Due to a lack of hydrological data exchange India was not aware of the approaching flood and alleged that China did this with malicious intent (India seems to hurl false accusations at all its neighbours willy-nilly).Satellite imagery later confirmed that the dam breach was, in fact, an accident.Thus India definitely stands to lose from China’s water policy.
There is also a belief that China’s blockage of the river as an upper riparian state, sets precedence for India to break the IWT.However, the fact remains that India, while claiming the rights of an upper riparian state, would be unilaterally breaking an international treaty and that puts it at odds with the liberal global world order that encourages bilateral and multilateral action. http://nation.com.pk/editorials/03-Oct-2016/water-world
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