ISLAMABAD: The former CIA station chief in Islamabad Robert Grenier has said he does not think the Taliban will “honestly” participate in peace negotiations and suggests that uprisings in Taliban controlled areas be supported in order to unsettle the insurgent group.
Mr Grenier was speaking at the launch of his book ’88 Days to Kandahar: a CIA Diary’ at the Institute of Strategic Studies. The book is about the role played by CIA, operating out of Pakistan, after 9/11 including the initiation of rebellion in southern Afghanistan’s Pashtun areas against the Taliban to the installation of Hamid Karzai as the leader of an interim government between Sept 11 and Dec 7, 2001.
Talking about the Taliban refusing to join the peace talks facilitated by the Quadrilateral Coordination Group until their conditions were met, Mr Grenier said: “Before the Afghan Taliban come to the table and agree to negotiate in good faith, they will have to be convinced that a military victory is beyond their reach”.
That, he said, is not the situation now.
Last year the Taliban gained a number of military successes, including a brief capture of Kunduz. It is believe that the group either control or maintain a significant presence in at least 30 districts in Afghanistan.
Mr Grenier suggested that other than extending financial and military support to the Afghan government, the international community should “to a limited degree and with small but sustainable forces, also engage in insurgency in areas where the Taliban hold sway”.
Based on his experiences of starting an uprising against the Taliban which led to their fall in 2001, he said he is confident that encouraging uprisings in Taliban held areas could be a “wise” move and said there was limited international support for Afghanistan.
He said the strategy will work because people cannot live under the control of the Taliban for long and that “authentic and legitimate” leaders rise in different places against the group every now and then. He stressed that these leaders should be supported.
The former CIA official said that as long as “durable political settlement in Afghanistan” is not attained, the prospects of which he said were slim; the other stakeholders in the peace process need to be patient.
He expressed concerns that terrorists from other countries will find sanctuaries in Afghanistan and that reports of the emergence of Daesh were already coming.
“It is required of Afghanistan [and the international community] to help bring about a political settlement to prevent international terrorist organisations from establishing footholds there,” he said and cautioned that if this was not achieved, a third world war could break out.
Also speaking at the launch was Secretary National Security Division Mohammad Sadiq who listed off the challenges to peace in Afghanistan. He said Afghans lack the ability to take decisions as a group and do not have tolerance for each other. For a peace effort to succeed Afghanistan needs a peace lobby, he said but regretted that there wasn’t one because everyone was benefitting from war.
About the newly launched book, Mr Sadiq said it is a useful and informative account, which is also well scripted.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1245170/uprisings-against-taliban-should-be-supported
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