The writer is an independent political analyst based in the USA
Back in 2012 when Barak Hussain Obama was running for his second term against Mitt Romney, my younger son, Uzair, who was in first grade in the elementary school, became a big Obama fan. Every day when he returned from his school, he would be loaded with new reasons why we should vote for Obama. And although he had many arguments to support his case in favour of Obama, he was most critical of Romney due to the tax evasion allegations that had surfaced against Romney. November 6, 2012, the Election Day in the USA, was a Tuesday. I remember Uzair most eagerly waiting for me at the door of our house when I got home from work so that “we” could go and vote — for Obama, of course.
Four years down the road, when elections are held in November this year, Uzair will be in fifth grade. However, his enthusiasm for politics seems to have waned now. And the reason: Ben Carson’s trailing behind in primaries. I am sure had Carson stood any chance of winning the election, Uzair would have been more enthusiastic than he was for Obama four years back. Even though he hasn’t heard the famous Persian saying, “What difference does it make to us if cow [elephant, in this case] comes and donkey leaves,” but being a fervent reader, and more aware of the world politics than most children his age, he is aware of Hillary Clinton’s record, and does not feel that there will be much for the world, and for Muslims in particular, in her win. That Clinton is being backed by the establishment and stands for the status quo is also a well-known speculation. The credit must be given to the education system of the US that teaches even children to go beyond their academic world at a very young age.
Which leaves us with Donald Trump. How much the non-white world loves him, and how he sees the world that is not white is a fact known well. To him everyone who is non-white is a criminal. His sexist statements are on the record. The family background that should have been a cause of problem for anyone else does not matter in his case. Donald’s grandfather, Frederick Trump, who moved to the United States in 1885 from Germany, started his career at a barbershop, and became rich by running houses of ill repute. Trump’s credentials being public records, I wonder if anyone else with a similar background would stand a chance to run for even a local office. The way he has risen to be the contender for the top slot of one of the two main political parties, overcoming all odds against him — his own party bigwigs trying to disown him even at this late stage — makes him a viable candidate for the White House.
So, any Iftar gathering you go to this Ramazan, one question inevitably emerges: what if Trump wins the elections and becomes the president of the United States? My counter-question is what if Clinton wins? The situation in the aftermath of Trump’s victory to the House on the Hill is unambiguously spelled in his speeches and actions. He never minces words and clearly says what he intends to do. He will bar Muslims from entering the United States. He will build a wall between Mexico and the USA. He will profile all those he dislikes. Although it is also obvious that the administration knowing the international ramifications of such actions would try to restrain him from doing what he says he would be doing. Whatever the case, one fact is clear that his victory would not be good news for the Muslim world. His intentions vis-à-vis the nuclear Pakistan as such are no secret either.
Hillary Clinton on the other hand is more articulate. She knows how to communicate a message without saying a word. Clinton, who seeks high-profile foreign policy guidance from Beacon Global Strategies, a firm that provides policy guidelines to the hawkish lawmakers, is pro-war. As far as her policy towards Pakistan is concerned, she being a pillar of the Obama administration, in all likelihood will not deviate from the path currently taken. While remembering the snakes Pakistan has in the backyard, she will conveniently forget as to who spawned those snakes in the Pakistani backyard in the first place. The goal of the current administration is to strengthen India as a counter-weight to China and destroy any hindrance in the way to achieve that objective. Pakistan, unfortunately, falls in the way. The efforts to make Pakistan irrelevant already being in action. Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, who was an international pariah immediately prior to his ascent to the Indian premiership due to his anti-minority record in India and was frequently refused visa to the western countries, receives warmer reception in the USA and elsewhere in the world than Pakistani leaders could dream to get at the height of the Cold War. Those Muslim countries that are generally considered to be under the US influence are at the forefront to promote India even at the cost of their relationship with Pakistan. When Modi holds a large political gathering in a stadium in a Muslim country that strictly proscribes political activities otherwise, a blind eye is turned and he is awarded with highest honors in another brotherly Muslim country. And could acquisition of Chabahar port by India in the neighboring Muslim Iran, which will connect India to Afghanistan and the Central Asia potentially rendering Gwadar port in Balochistan irrelevant, have been possible without the acquiescence of the Obama administration of which Mrs. Clinton is a major player?
So if the US-Pak relationship has hit the lowest ebb during the current Democratic administration, should Pakistan expect a better deal in case a change in the White House takes place and Republicans, traditionally Pro-Pakistan, occupy the palace? Not this time and definitely not under Mr. Trump. In either win, Pakistan is headed for troubling times.
Facts being what they are, isn’t some introspection warranted on the part of Pakistani establishment? One thing very clearly standing out being that Pakistani has a miserably faulty foreign policy and whosoever is forming and running the policy has failed Pakistan. And, also, that institutions and individuals not trained in foreign, internal and financial affairs should better return to their own domain of expertise and let the professionals do the job.
In the situation such as Pakistan is facing, nations need leadership. With the capable leadership of the country systematically eliminated from the scene, what options do we have to reverse the tide of time set in full motion against us? Does the baboonery that passes for our leadership, and which is nurtured and promoted by the same powers that be that run our foreign policy, have the capability to steer the vessel out of the troubled waters in the post 2016 US election scenario, is the real question we should be asking ourselves.http://dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/28-Jun-16/troubled-waters-ahead-for-pakistan
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