The water war!: by Syed Muhammad Abubakar in The News on Sunday,October 9, 2016

It was on May 04, 1948, when the Inter-Dominion Accord was enacted by Pakistan and India. The accord required India to release sufficient amount of water to Pakistan, in return for annual payments from Pakistan.
The same year, David Lilienthal, former Chairman Tennessee Valley Authority, and of the US Atomic Energy Commission, visited both Pakistan and India to write a series of articles for Collier’s magazine. The US officials briefed Lilienthal about the hostile situation prevalent on both sides, Pakistan and India, at that time, hoping that he could bridge the gap between the two. David Lilienthal wrote in the Collier’s magazine:
“India and Pakistan were on the verge of war over Kashmir. There seemed to be no possibility of negotiating this issue until tensions abated. One way to reduce hostility would be to concentrate on other important issues where cooperation was possible. Progress in these areas would promote a sense of community between the two nations which might, in time, lead to a Kashmir settlement. Accordingly, I proposed that India and Pakistan work out a program jointly to develop and operate the Indus Basin river system, upon which both nations were dependent for irrigation water. With new dams and irrigation canals, the Indus and its tributaries could be made to yield the additional water each country needed for increased food production. In the article I had suggested that the World Bank might use its good offices to bring the parties to agreement, and help in the financing of an Indus Development program.”
Lilienthal’s idea received appreciation from the World Bank, as well as from Pakistan and India. This eventually paved way for the World Bank to broker an agreement between Pakistan and India, known as the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)(URL:http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSOUTHASIA/Resources/223497-1105737253588/IndusWatersTreaty1960.pdf). It was signed by Field Marshal Muhammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan; and Jawaharlal Nehru, Prime Minister of India, in Karachi, on September 19, 1960.
The IWT has stood the test of time and is an example of successful cooperation between both nations for more than half century. The treaty has withstood the wars of 1965, 1971, Sichen and Kargil conflicts and Mumbai attacks, and the meetings of Indus Water Commissioners continued unabated.
On September 18, 2016, terrorists killed 18 soldiers at an Indian army brigade headquarters at Uri, in Indian occupied Kashmir. Without concrete evidence, Pakistan was blamed for this, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while heading a review meeting of the IWT, categorically stated that “Blood and water cannot flow simultaneously”.
New Delhi has vowed three punitive measures:
Suspension of the meetings of Indus Water Commissioners.
Restarting work on the Tulbul Navigational Project, also known as Wullar barrage, the work on which was stopped in 1987 after Pakistan complained about it. The project would allow India to store, control and divert River Jhelum flowing downstream.
Formation of an inter-ministerial task force to find ways to increase usage of the waters from Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers. However, India is entitled to use only 20 per cent of the western rivers, for domestic and non-consumptive use, hydropower and agriculture, subject to certain limits.
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) does not allow Pakistan and India to cancel the treaty unilaterally. According to the Article 12(4) of the IWT, termination is only possible, if both India and Pakistan draft a treaty in this regard and then ratify it.
Sheraz Memon, Additional Commissioner, Indus Waters Commission, said, “India may not take any immediate decision to abrogate the IWT, as at present India do not have sufficient capacity to withhold water of the rivers allocated to Pakistan and have no option to divert the waters of these rivers. Therefore, India will not take such a decision which will result only in bad name and international pressure without any benefits.”
When asked about the response of the government of Pakistan on the matter, he said, “The government is still silent on this matter, as all the relevant officials i.e. Secretary, Ministry of Water and Power, Attorney General of Pakistan, Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters are out of the country. No policy statement has been issued so far.”
Dr Adil Najam, Dean Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, criticised the Indian government for doing politics on water. According to him, “The Indus Water Treaty is amongst the ONLY thing in India-Pakistan relations that works. For India to mess with this for petty point scoring is sad.”
Dr Adil Najam further said, “To unilaterally abort the treaty will be an unprecedented step of international callousness by India, and one whose impacts will go well beyond water. It will be a serious blow to India’s international credibility. By using the IWT as a talking point in political posturing, India has already undermined the integrity of the treaty, as well as of its own international stature.”
Instead of both the countries working on transboundary cooperation in the wake of climate change and groundwater depletion, they are mired in mistrust, lack of coordination and territorial disputes. This hampers any prospects of transboundary cooperation between Pakistan and India.
However, if Pakistan seriously wants to strengthen its case in the international community, it needs to find out ways to deal with unsustainable management of water resources, pollution and over-abstraction of groundwater within its jurisdiction.
Sartaj Aziz, Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, has responded to Narendra Modi’s threatening remarks by stating that scrapping the IWT will be considered as an ‘act of war’. In the meantime, China has blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra river for a hydro project, which later flows into India, signaling that India should abstain from its nefarious designs of depriving the lower riparian (Pakistan) of its water rights.
Stopping or reducing the water from western rivers just to ‘punish’ Pakistan would be disastrous, as the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers serve as the lifeline of Pakistan’s economy, and sustain the agriculture sector. Let us not forget that the agriculture sector constitutes almost 19.8 per cent of the GDP and employs 42.3 per cent of the labor force (URL: http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_16/02_Agriculture.pdf). It won’t be wrong to say that Modi is planning a complete annihilation of the 200 million Pakistanis by depriving them of their absolute right, WATER. However, in order to stop this from happening, Pakistan will have to make every attempt, even if that is war.
http://tns.thenews.com.pk/water-war/#.V_pvE-B97IU