…….In view of the domestic challenges, Biden is expected to follow a policy of facilitating Americans to succeed in the global economy—with a foreign policy for the middle class. For that, China will remain America’s number one economic challenge and to win the competition against China or anyone else, the US will rely on sharpening its innovative edge and will try to unite the economic might of like minded democracies. For that we may see the revival of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) dispute settlement system to get back to work in addition to coordination with the EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, and others to address the WTO’s weaknesses.
Biden is also likely to reinforce his economic and security partnership with Europe by reinvigorating Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), giving away undue thinning out from Germany and strengthening NATO to take care of resurgent Russia. Nevertheless, Biden despite being tough with China, is expected to follow Obama’s rational policy line according to which the US is to cooperate where it can and compete where it must. Biden is also prone to revive the Iran nuclear deal to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
In the larger regional security domain, Obama-Biden Asia Pacific Rebalancing Policy, which resulted in the latest Quad Group alliance tipped to become Quad Plus or a mini NATO in the region, is likely to be considered to be a bipartisan and establishment strategy to deal with both China and Russia. Thus, India is prone to remain America’s strategic ally and its consequent military muscles building will continue to bleed India economically, disturb regional stability and threaten Pakistan before it threatens any other country. It will also remain to be seen as to how will Biden and Harris fulfill their concerns and good wishes expressed during election campaign regarding people suffering under Indian occupation in Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK).
American disdain for Chinese BRI and CPEC projects, as well as Pakistan’s place in it, is likely to keep Pakistan under duress by FATF and other IFIs. As Biden is likely to follow up Trump’s policy of disengagement from all unending wars like the ones in Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen including support to KSA. Instead, emphasis will shift to use of small scale special forces, high tech weapons and pushing the regional stakeholders to take care of the details –a smart solution. Therefore, Pakistan is likely to stay relevant and may be off the hook, to a degree, until America can withdraw and return relative peace in Afghanistan.
To keen eyes, the scenario may seem familiar looking back at 2010-2017. For Pakistan, not much change or comfortable news; the only available safety zone is adjusting in the evolving regional and extra regional security and economic alliances without getting trapped once again in a conflict on any one’s behalf. https://nation.com.pk/16-Nov-2020/the-impact-of-biden-s-victory
The impact of Biden’s victory: op-ed by Saleem Qamar Butt in The Nation, Nov 16, 2020
…….In view of the domestic challenges, Biden is expected to follow a policy of facilitating Americans to succeed in the global economy—with a foreign policy for the middle class. For that, China will remain America’s number one economic challenge and to win the competition against China or anyone else, the US will rely on sharpening its innovative edge and will try to unite the economic might of like minded democracies. For that we may see the revival of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) dispute settlement system to get back to work in addition to coordination with the EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, and others to address the WTO’s weaknesses.
Biden is also likely to reinforce his economic and security partnership with Europe by reinvigorating Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), giving away undue thinning out from Germany and strengthening NATO to take care of resurgent Russia. Nevertheless, Biden despite being tough with China, is expected to follow Obama’s rational policy line according to which the US is to cooperate where it can and compete where it must. Biden is also prone to revive the Iran nuclear deal to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
In the larger regional security domain, Obama-Biden Asia Pacific Rebalancing Policy, which resulted in the latest Quad Group alliance tipped to become Quad Plus or a mini NATO in the region, is likely to be considered to be a bipartisan and establishment strategy to deal with both China and Russia. Thus, India is prone to remain America’s strategic ally and its consequent military muscles building will continue to bleed India economically, disturb regional stability and threaten Pakistan before it threatens any other country. It will also remain to be seen as to how will Biden and Harris fulfill their concerns and good wishes expressed during election campaign regarding people suffering under Indian occupation in Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK).
American disdain for Chinese BRI and CPEC projects, as well as Pakistan’s place in it, is likely to keep Pakistan under duress by FATF and other IFIs. As Biden is likely to follow up Trump’s policy of disengagement from all unending wars like the ones in Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen including support to KSA. Instead, emphasis will shift to use of small scale special forces, high tech weapons and pushing the regional stakeholders to take care of the details –a smart solution. Therefore, Pakistan is likely to stay relevant and may be off the hook, to a degree, until America can withdraw and return relative peace in Afghanistan.
To keen eyes, the scenario may seem familiar looking back at 2010-2017. For Pakistan, not much change or comfortable news; the only available safety zone is adjusting in the evolving regional and extra regional security and economic alliances without getting trapped once again in a conflict on any one’s behalf. https://nation.com.pk/16-Nov-2020/the-impact-of-biden-s-victory
Published in Pak Media comment and Pakistan