In efforts to revive the negotiation process the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government have suffered a possibly decisive blow as the main faction of the group denied that it had any plans to join the process. Moreover, the statement also dubbed the entire process “futile”. The statement read: “We unequivocally state that the leader of Islamic Emirate (Afghan Taliban’s name for itself) has not authorised anyone to participate in this meeting.” To be a part of the peace process, the group reiterated its requirements: exit of foreign forces from Afghanistan, lifting of curbs on Taliban leaders and release of Taliban prisoners from Afghan jails. This statement comes mere days after a prematurely gloating and confident Sartaj Aziz, Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, confirmed a long-held secret while in Washington, that the senior leadership of the Afghan Taliban is “housed” in Pakistan. Aziz had claimed that Pakistan held leverage over said Taliban leadership, and could deny them access to their families, medical facilities, etc, if the group was not willing to partake in the peace negotiations. He even posited that the leadership could be expelled from Pakistan if they failed to comply; this was the first time ever such a threat was publically made by a senior official of Pakistan. It is very difficult to not read this statement as coming as a direct consequence of Aziz’s claim. The statement was released by the faction controlled by Mullah Mansour Akhter, the nominal head of the Taliban, and a man whose tenure as chief has already seen one attack on his life as well as a large number of defections of various Taliban factions precisely because of his assumed closed association with the Pakistani establishment. Thus a few days after a senior Pakistani official claimed to have the Afghan Taliban under the country’s thumb, this statement comes as a declaration of being autonomous. Mullah Manosur would have felt his credibility directly under the line of fire, and may be seeking to disassociate himself from his history to solidify his credentials as a leader and to ameliorate fellow militant commanders who question his judgment at every turn. In recent times, there is also the spectre of Islamic State (IS) that has started to attract various subgroups of the Afghan Taliban as formerly loyal commanders are pledging their allegiance to IS in droves.
Given this scheme of things, the Afghan Taliban, perhaps keen to shed image of an organisation that is folding over to, on one hand, to the US and Afghan governments, and, on the other to the emerging IS in Afghanistan, has been launching attacks after attacks on Afghan soil. Previously, some analysts had hoped that this upturn in attacks was at best indicative of the Afghan Taliban vying for a stronger hand at the upcoming negotiations table, but with this recent statement it seems as if they have decided that they are in a commanding position and need to take the political route to have their goals realised. Given the steady withdrawal of foreign troops, and the manifest incompetence of the Afghan security forces, this realisation on the part of the Afghan leadership presents a fearsome prospect. However, it remains to be seen if, as some optimists are hoping, this apparently decisive statement is also just another ruse to get a stronger hand at the negotiations table. Whatever the Afghan Taliban’s true intentions behind this statement maybe, in the near future there appears to be no chance that the talks scheduled for early March will take place. Even more than that it is now abundantly clear that Pakistan does not hold the much advertised ‘leverage’ over the Afghan Taliban that they believe they have. Perhaps, now is the time that Pakistan actually uses the tool of expulsion to force the Afghan Taliban’s hand into joining the negotiations. It has to be qualified that no prolonged, asymmetrical conflict in modern history has ended purely due to use of force. There is no other viable alternative to holding political negotiations, and this process must be sustained slowly but steadily.http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/07-Mar-2016/taliban-s-refusal
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