If any confirmation was needed that Afghanistan had lost confidence in the QCG it came at the fifth meeting of the Quadrilateral – on Wednesday in Islamabad. Kabul sent its ambassador in Islamabad, Omar Zakhilwal, in place of the usual participant, Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai. And the ambassador minced few words when he spoke. Kabul came with the simple understanding, he said, that if the Taliban didn’t talk they’d be attacked. And since Pakistan was supposed to take care of this unpleasant piece of business, the dots not connecting is taken as Islamabad’s fault, of course.
This breakdown is unfortunate, to say the least. Granted, not everybody in the QCG is happy that Pakistan was unable to eventually arm-twist the Taliban to the talks. But, then again, not everybody sees eye to eye with Afghanistan either. The Chinese, for example, were quick to shoot down Kabul’s attempt to leverage the Quadrilateral for an attack on the Taliban. This platform, they rightly reminded everybody, was only for dialogue.
Nevertheless, Pakistan must now wriggle around once again to salvage what remains of the peace talks. A complete breakdown benefits nobody. The Afghan Taliban will only return to their Spring Offensive with more initiative. And Pakistan will continue to struggle with the TTP’s cross-border activities. Interestingly, President Ghani has won himself a nice feather in the cap by making peace with Hikmatyar. The Hizb-i-Islami might not be a big player in the insurgency, but it still carries good symbolic value. And Ghani can say, this time with force, they he means peace when he says it. This, of course, only puts more pressure on Pakistan, which could not deliver the Taliban. The Afghans showed little interest when the Mullah Mansour faction expressed slight willingness to talk recently. So definitely something more will have to be put on the table if the QCG is to be saved. So either Pakistan increases pressure on the Taliban or Ghani de-escalates to save the talks, otherwise expecting QCG to deliver would be like whipping a dead horse.
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