Reviving talks between the Afghan government and Taliban factions is not going to be an easy task. The Afghan reconciliation process was stalled this summer after the death of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar was confirmed. Since then, the Taliban have gained strength, mounting a number of strong attacks in Afghanistan. The relatively weakened government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has had to face internal dissent for its reconciliation policy with the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan; the head of the Afghan intelligence agency also resigned over the matter. This goes to highlight the difficulty of the task that has been restarted on Monday as the first consultation was held in Islamabad to revive the Afghan reconciliation process. Attended by representatives from Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the United States, the talks called for the immediate restoration of direct dialogue between the Afghan government and Taliban factions. The group formed on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia Conference is tasked with developing a framework and terms of reference for the future dialogue.
Pakistan has proposed that there be neither any preconditions nor any threat of use of force. Instead, the onus should be on the Afghan government to try for confidence-building with the Taliban. The Pakistani proposal is in contrast to some Afghan officials who have insisted that the Afghan Taliban should be made to talk on the threat of action. The trouble is that this threat of violence by Afghanistan is a bluff. The Afghan Taliban should be able to see right through it. The approach of building trust has more promise, but there is little understanding of what the Taliban could demand and what would be limit of concessions that could be offered. There have been 15 years of bloodshed in Afghanistan. While it makes sense for outsiders to ask for the fighting to stop, it is unclear if the groups involved are ready to compromise. It should be noted that there was no Taliban representation in Monday’s talks. There is speculation that Mullah Mansour may be warming up to the idea of talks, but other Taliban groups insist that all foreign forces must leave Afghanistan before talks can begin. Third party mediation, including that by Pakistan, is likely to emerge as a thorn later. The Taliban are arguably at their strongest since 2001 and it seems unlikely that they will rush to the negotiating table. The general rule in international diplomacy at such times has been that of the carrot and the stick, but we can see little of either at the moment. All parties are relying on each other’s goodwill, which could perhaps reap some rewards. We can watch out for whether the Taliban attend the next round of talks on January 18. If not, the process may be destined to fail before it has even begun.http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/89855-Reconciliation-talks
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