Cruising along the famous avenues of Pakistan’s leading urban centres, you couldn’t miss those billboards with the picture of a smiling Raheel Sharif, accompanied by a short message in Urdu asking him to take over.
The civil authorities had the posters removed while the government contemplated ways to counter this open call to flout the country’s constitution.
Subsequent developments have the citizens wondering what was going on. The ISPR denied involvement. However, the puppet department owned up to the posters – asserting their infinite love for the army chief. The maulana for all seasons came forward, for once articulating commonly felt angst by calling the poster campaign as an act of treason. Then came the news of the arrests and likely prosecution of those blatantly calling for a military takeover.
Some speculate that the army chief’s impending retirement or his potential extension is behind the poster episode. In other words, abhi tau party shuru hui hai.
‘Move on Pakistan’ is the latest eruption in the multifaceted crisis the present government has faced starting with the Imran-Qadri show of strength in 2014, inviting the third umpire to intervene. Their hubris melted away once the umpire told them to calm down.
Pakistanis, having experienced so much turmoil in their country’s short history, cannot be too excited over ongoing manoeuvres by the container brigade, joined by the PPP, to destabilise the government in the aftermath of the Panama leaks. Uppermost in their minds is what role the umpire will play if the PML-N dispensation is pushed against the wall.
Propaganda stunts by some-well wishers of the army chief have further muddied the waters, leading to many tongues wagging about all kinds of dire consequences. Senior analysts and super anchors update us on a daily basis about all that is likely to happen in the coming weeks. They usually add the caveat that everything cannot be disclosed, thus taking a rain check for things moving differently. The overzealous among them try desperately to fast forward the brewing crisis.
So in the midst of the cacophony, I have undertaken an exercise to figure out some scenarios, based on common sense rather than occult science, about the prevailing situation.
In Scenario 1, which the markets are going to love, Nawaz Sharif weathers the latest tsunami unleashed by the master agitator and his co-travellers. The government completes its five years and announces the date of the next general election. There is some more foreign investment and a couple of billion dollars more in the foreign exchange reserves.
Overall, it is a continuation of low achievements with the exports remaining stagnant and social development indices going down for a growing population. The PML-N tries to prove its credentials beyond building roads and bridges, diverting more money to the social sector.
Scenario 2. This is a bad one for the markets. Nawaz Sharif comes under increasing pressure from the container lot, the umpire and catalytic agents like those putting up posters at night. Normal economic activity is disrupted, hurting productivity and provision of services.
The flight of capital accelerates and the rupee comes under growing pressure. A government notorious for its diffidence and inaction reaches a stage of semi-paralysis. The PML-N tries to cut a deal with the PPP to marginalise the PTI which, having failed to capitalise on Panama, becomes more desperate, violent and prone to inciting some extra-constitutional move to cut short the government’s term for an early general election.
Scenario 3. A win-win for all. Nawaz Sharif’s health condition does not allow him to exercise power effectively and he comes under increasing pressure from a virulent opposition on the issue of the Panama leaks. He agrees to step down and appoints someone else from the PML-N to take over as prime minister. The ‘Move on Pakistan’ types lose their steam and the umpire assumes a benevolent role in an extended tenure to be determined through mutual consultations. Or, he retires as promised.
But prudent forecasters will not exclude the unforeseen scenario which sadly is never far off. That is the one which tells the world loud and clear that Pakistan has taken, once more, a backward step. It happened in 1958, 1969, 1977 and 1999. This is the one which extends the army chief’s term indefinitely.
Looking back at the last 50 years, Zia stayed as COAS for nine years in excess of his three-year tenure and Musharraf for seven years beyond his term. Kayani was granted three years after completing his normal term. Between them, these three gobbled up nineteen extra years of the army chief’s tenure, denying six other generals the chance of leading one of the world’s largest armies. Keep your promise, mon general!
The world still remembers one general who stood above the rest. Charles De Gaulle pulled France out of the socio-politico-economic mess. He restored France’s place in the concert of nations and told his countrymen to let go off Algeria which many of them thought was part of France.
After becoming unpopular, De Gaulle called a referendum on his plans which were rebuffed by the electorate. De Gaulle calmly rode back to his village in Eastern France. Not to forget that he was not the army chief then but a popularly elected president. Surely, there is a way for generals to reach Islamabad by constitutional means.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/135920-Posters-and-promotions
Democracy and the coup: By Talat Farooq in The News, July 19, 2016
The writer is an academic, currently affiliated with Meliksah University, Turkey
Our media and politicians are waxing eloquent about how the Turkish people – the ‘awam’ – have saved and strengthened democracy. The assumption is flawed on two counts: a) that democracy has been saved, and b) that people-power alone was enough to challenge the poorly planned and badly coordinated military coup.
President Erdogan has ushered in commendable economic growth and this along with his Islamist credentials have built a loyal, conservative following. However, despite his popularity, he is a controversial figure. True, his supporters are many but then there is the other half of the Turkish society that is highly uncomfortable with what it perceives as his authoritarian tendencies.
Erdogan’s quest for replacing the parliamentary system with a presidential one is seen as a clear manifestation of his need for personal empowerment through an authoritarian constitutional regime.
One is a witness to the plight of those working in the universities and banks run by the Hizmat Foundation of Fetullah Gulen. They have been facing arbitrary arrests and detentions with no recourse to justice. The presence of the police on campus is not an uncommon sight.
Similarly, uncooperative media persons have been facing arrests, prison terms and forced closures of their businesses for ostensibly undermining state security. The Gullenists maintain that Gulen’s stand against governmental corruption involving some close relatives of the president is what invited Erdogan’s wrath against his former close friend and ardent supporter.
Turkish police forces brutally suppressed demonstrations in Istanbul’s Gezi Park and in other cities in June 2013. Since then the president has attacked social media, particularly Twitter which is popular among young middle-class Turks, as harmful for Turkey. Subsequently, hundreds of Turks have been prosecuted for allegedly offensive tweets mocking the president. Yet, ironically, on Friday he himself resorted to social media to urge his supporters to fight the coup plotters in the streets of Ankara and Istanbul.
Erdogan has been trying to purge dissenting judges from the top courts for some time; in the wake of the failed coup he has achieved this with a single stroke of the pen. The failed amateurish coup – seen by many in the opposing camp as staged– is likely to make it easier for Erdogan to make the constitutional changes needed for replacing the current parliamentary governance model.
Moreover, it will provide the opportunity to further purge the military. There is no denying the fact that in a democratic setup the military must be under civilian control. However, it is also important to remember that a pliant military leadership that is reluctant to offer candid input in the formulation of strategic policies may fail to fulfil its fundamental role.
Genuine democracy is not about empowering one branch at the expense of another; it is more fundamentally about separation of powers, checks and balances and rule of law. A failed coup therefore will not automatically usher in a stronger Turkish democracy.
Secondly, the ‘awam’ did not single-handedly thwart the attempted coup. One must not take away anything from the ordinary citizens who came out in droves to challenge the coup-plotters; they were heroic and their sincere passion was moving. One must also appreciate the opposition leaders who denounced the coup. In a sign of how little apparent public support the coup plotters had all three opposition parties in parliament united against the coup. (What their reaction might have been in case the coup was successful is of course another matter.)
That said, the crucial role of the military and the national police in preventing a successful coup must also be acknowledged. Major elements of the Turkish military and Turkish Special Forces stood behind Erdogan. Gen Hulusi Akar’s (genuine or forced) refusal to back the coup was likely a key reason why it quickly unravelled.
Fighter jets took out a military helicopter involved in the rebel attack against the communication provider Turksat and launched air strikes at rebel tanks outside parliament. Without this military support for the government – and lack of support for the rebellious faction – it is difficult to imagine how unarmed protesters could have stopped the heavily armed coup plotters without excessive bloodshed leading to uncontrollable chaos.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Erdogan will use the failed coup to launch an even bigger attack on the Gulen movement. Fethullah Gulen has categorically denounced the coup. It is debatable what Gulen, whose movement has strong political, social and financial influence in Turkey, stood to gain from an ill-planned and amateurish coup attempt.
There are a number of fault-lines in Turkish society. One sincerely hopes that Erdogan will use his steadily growing power to close the gaps. The future of Turkish democracy lies in the balance. And a strong, democratic Turkey is indispensable for the Muslim world.
Coming back to our media and certain politicians’ enthusiasm for the populist sentiment in Turkey; those who are trying to find commonalities between the Turkish and Pakistani situations would do well to remember that despite his controversial policies Erdogan remains a popular leader because he has delivered on the economic front resulting in legitimate popular support.
Moreover, there are many Turks who do not support Erdogan but who are also against the military’s political dominance because they do not wish a repeat of the economic and political instability that marks Turkey’s coup-ridden past.
In Pakistan, however, despite a desire for democracy the public perception of our political elite is less than complimentary. In the unfortunate case of a similar crisis (God forbid), a call for people to lie in front of tanks may very well fall on deaf ears. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/135921-Democracy-and-the-coup
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