THE opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement is working hard to make its final Lahore jalsa a success on Dec 13. The PML-N is the host for the event and is utilising all its resources to gather a significant crowd. It is also an opportunity for the party to flex its electoral muscles in its home base. However, the bigger question is: what after Lahore? This is where the PDM is struggling to come up with a unified strategy. As per the original plan announced at the multiparty conference earlier, the PDM is scheduled to give a call for a long march to Islamabad. However, there are numerous complications that might not make this a natural extension of the jalsa campaign.
JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman is the strongest proponent for the march to Islamabad and subsequent resignations from the assemblies. Since he has already experienced a solo march last year, and sensed the impact of the event, he seems better placed to make it happen. The other PDM parties also recognise that JUI-F cadres — disciplined and hardy as they are — will be crucial for the success of the march. This gives the maulana significant leverage in terms of decision-making from this stage onwards. The PML-N leadership is also leaning towards a harder line ever since Nawaz Sharif has taken a strong position against the role of the establishment. There may be many within the party who are not comfortable with the resignation option but given the prevalent mood of the top leadership, they may not have much of a choice if the decision is indeed made. However, the PPP has been uneasy with this action of last resort. It is the only party among the alliance that has a government to lose if the opposition decides to take the resignations’ route.
In addition, the rapidly escalating Covid-19 situation is making it difficult for the opposition to keep public opinion on its side. Yet opposition leaders also believe that if they postpone their agitation activities till the infection comes under control, it may be very difficult to build the momentum again. In this tough situation, the PDM may resort to an expedited schedule for its subsequent actions. However, this still does not make it clear how the opposition intends to send the government packing before the Senate elections in March. The extended dharna may create a continuous news event and generate pressure on the government but it is unlikely that it would compel the government to resign. The PDM may have created the right optics for a spirited campaign but after its last jalsa in Lahore, it may realise that its objective of sending the government packing is still not within reach. For that to happen, the opposition will need to figure out what realistic options it has in its political arsenal.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1594467/pdms-dilemma
PDM’s dilemma: Editorial in Dawn, December 7th, 2020
THE opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement is working hard to make its final Lahore jalsa a success on Dec 13. The PML-N is the host for the event and is utilising all its resources to gather a significant crowd. It is also an opportunity for the party to flex its electoral muscles in its home base. However, the bigger question is: what after Lahore? This is where the PDM is struggling to come up with a unified strategy. As per the original plan announced at the multiparty conference earlier, the PDM is scheduled to give a call for a long march to Islamabad. However, there are numerous complications that might not make this a natural extension of the jalsa campaign.
JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman is the strongest proponent for the march to Islamabad and subsequent resignations from the assemblies. Since he has already experienced a solo march last year, and sensed the impact of the event, he seems better placed to make it happen. The other PDM parties also recognise that JUI-F cadres — disciplined and hardy as they are — will be crucial for the success of the march. This gives the maulana significant leverage in terms of decision-making from this stage onwards. The PML-N leadership is also leaning towards a harder line ever since Nawaz Sharif has taken a strong position against the role of the establishment. There may be many within the party who are not comfortable with the resignation option but given the prevalent mood of the top leadership, they may not have much of a choice if the decision is indeed made. However, the PPP has been uneasy with this action of last resort. It is the only party among the alliance that has a government to lose if the opposition decides to take the resignations’ route.
In addition, the rapidly escalating Covid-19 situation is making it difficult for the opposition to keep public opinion on its side. Yet opposition leaders also believe that if they postpone their agitation activities till the infection comes under control, it may be very difficult to build the momentum again. In this tough situation, the PDM may resort to an expedited schedule for its subsequent actions. However, this still does not make it clear how the opposition intends to send the government packing before the Senate elections in March. The extended dharna may create a continuous news event and generate pressure on the government but it is unlikely that it would compel the government to resign. The PDM may have created the right optics for a spirited campaign but after its last jalsa in Lahore, it may realise that its objective of sending the government packing is still not within reach. For that to happen, the opposition will need to figure out what realistic options it has in its political arsenal.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1594467/pdms-dilemma
Published in Pak Media comment and Pakistan