The decision by the Mullah Akhtar Mansoor faction of the Afghan Taliban to pull out of proposed peace talks with the Afghanistan government should be seen as the opening gambit in a long negotiation rather than the end of such talks. The Taliban have said they will not take part in the negotiations as long as the Afghanistan government launches operations against them, foreign fighters are present in the country and Taliban members are kept in prison. What the Taliban are saying essentially is that they will only negotiate if all their demands are met before the negotiations even start. This, needless to say, is not acceptable to the Afghan government or the three other members of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group – the US, Pakistan and China. Talks between the two sides have frequently been stymied by events; last year it was the revelation that Mullah Omar had been dead for two years and the Taliban had hidden the news from just about everyone, including their own cadres. The succession battle that kicked off put paid to any talks and after that convincing Qatar to hold the talks occupied the energy of the QCG. Islamabad had been set as the venue for the latest talks (originally scheduled for the first week of March). After a third meeting of the QCG without Taliban representation at the table, the QCG had announced their support for direct talks between the missing Taliban and the Afghan government.
For now it seems the QCG will have to wait for the Taliban to get back to the negotiating table. Eventually, though, the Taliban will have to do so since the intractable war in Afghanistan cannot be won by either side. The Taliban’s tactics of blending in with the population mean that it is very hard to destroy them but they too cannot take over territory against the numerically superior Afghan army. This means that both the government and the Taliban are fighting each other to a ruinous draw. The US realised the folly of fighting in Afghanistan and withdrew most of its forces while Pakistan has, for the first time, promised not to provide sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban. All the ingredients are in place for successful talks to be held. But first comes the posturing as everyone tries to finagle whatever advantage they can get. This adds to the sense of frustration and despair but the QCG needs to grin and bear it. Fifteen years in, the war in Afghanistan needs to end and negotiations are the only way to do so. All sides recognise that and now all that’s left is for the details to be sorted out.http://thenews.com.pk/print/103379-No-talks
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