News of Kabul-Taliban talks in Doha has always been followed by swift denials from both sides; especially when they did talk. This time seems no different. Post-Hikmetyar, especially, there’s every reason for this process to finally get off the mark. This is one notable difference though. Pakistan was not invited and, from the looks of things so far, played no part in the process whatsoever. Kabul has long been wary of Islamabad’s real intention, to the point that it initiated the push that eventually got Pakistan out of the QCG (Quadrilateral Coordination Group). The Taliban’s sudden about-turn, though, could have multiple reasons.
There’s been a split, of sorts, between Afghan Taliban field commanders and the higher leadership since Mullah Mansour took over after Mullah Omar’s death was confirmed. Even when the top order was ready for peace, ground commanders were often reluctant to compromise their hard won gains. The decision to talk could mean that that thinking is changing. Having seen the Hikmetyar episode play out, and with the Kabul government not collapsing after all, perhaps they too are testing the waters for peace. On the other hand, the cleavage could well still exist, or even have widened, which might also become known in the coming days.
There is also, quite clearly, a change of approach in Kabul itself. For quite a while the younger generation of lawmakers advocated cutting off completely from the Taliban and pursuing them to the end. The old guard, though, still favoured talks if they guaranteed peace. Hikmetyar, again, shows that the more immediately doable option has clearly been exercised. Afghanistan needs to rebuild, for which it needs peace. It’s as simple as that. Also, quite clearly, they have kept Pakistan out because of the growing trust deficit. Islamabad should, instead, welcome the Afghan-led initiative as the first step of a long process it has also advocated for a long time.
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