Beijing says it made a success of this week’s talks with Southeast Asian officials on the South China Sea, a month after an international tribunal rebuked its record of bullying foreign vessels and building artificial islands in disputed waters. But closer inspection of this diplomatic breakthrough suggests there’s scant reason to hope for a new era of maritime harmony and compromise.
At a meeting in China’s Inner Mongolia region, Beijing agreed to conclude a framework for a maritime code of conduct with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, by the middle of next year. The code has been the holy grail of regional diplomacy since the subject was first broached some 14 years ago. But such a code would be binding in name only. It would do nothing to stop China’s longstanding strategy of talk-and-take—engaging in endless negotiations while gradually conquering the sea.
China and Asean also agreed that a 2014 protocol for handling unplanned sea encounters will apply to the South China Sea. But this protocol—like the one signed in 2014 by China and the United States—applies only to navies, not to the coast guard, law enforcement and civilian fishing fleets that China frequently uses to harass its neighbors, meaning this week’s deal is partial progress at best.
There will also be new guidelines for emergency hotlines between China and Asean. Such hotlines are important, but only if China starts using them in good faith. After planting an oil rig in Vietnamese waters two years ago, Beijing refused to answer Vietnam’s calls for a month. In June it cut communications with Taiwan to signal displeasure with the island’s new president. Whether it takes Asean’s future calls is anyone’s guess.
The way China dismissed Singapore, the current coordinator of Asean-China dialogues, doesn’t inspire confidence. “As Singapore is not a claimant in the South China Sea,” said Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin, it should avoid “interfering in South China Sea issues.” That’s some claim concerning an island city-state that sits on the Strait of Malacca and relies on open sea lanes for its wealth and protection.
“This is a typical example of China’s passive-aggressive style of diplomacy,” an Asean diplomat told us in response. “It is designed to make Asean members feel bad as if we are not supposed to pursue our own interests.”
That’s about right, though China would also like to use Asean, which is weak and often internally divided, as a way of getting its way against Japan, Australia, the United States and other democratic powers in the Pacific that have the means to stand up to its bullying.
China’s next move will be to try to reach separate bilateral deals with its weaker maritime neighbours, starting with the Philippines. Manila and other vulnerable Asian states need to be careful not to mistake a feel-good summit with a new era of good feelings, much less trade U.S. security guarantees for paper promises from Beijing. http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-maritime-diplomacy-1471561516
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