China faces tough policy options on Pakistan

Islamabad: China is facing tough options on Pakistan with Islamabad, after a 70-day denial mode, finally admitting that the attackers on Mumbai had indeed sailed from Karachi and that Lashkar-e-Taiba was responsible for the assault on November 26 that lasted about 70 hours and resulted in death of some 200 people from 15 countries.

Western diplomats in Islamabad point out that China has deep economic, military and strategic interests in Pakistan and that these are more than outweighed by the stakes Beijing has acquired in the Indian market.  ‘Indian market is literally swamped by Chinese products that range from pen cells to toys and electronic gadgets like cell phones and a wide range of industrial goods. Many leading Indian houses are outsourcing their products from China’, a western diplomat who had a stint in the Chinese capital said, adding that China in these days of economic downturn cannot afford to ignore the Indian market. ‘Any how, given its own stakes in anti-terrorism drive, China cannot gloss over the epicentre of terrorism that Pakistan has become’.

Observers are therefore not surprised at the ‘low key’ treatment in the Chinese media to the post-Mumbai attack stand off between the two south Asian neighbours. Chinese Foreign Minister visited Delhi and Islamabad. Local reports in Chinese media reported the visit in a matter of fact manner. About the Delhi leg of the visit, these reports said that he was given a briefing and apprised of the involvement of Pakistanis and terrorist groups closely associated with Pak security agencies.

While there are no reports of the advice given by the Chinese Foreign Minister to Pakistani establishment, there are some media speculations that Islamabad began to accept that the lone surviving terrorist Kasab was indeed a Pakistani only after the Chinese told them to do so in the face of glaring proof.  Subsequent statements from Chinese leaders are directed to suggest that the two countries need to renew their bilateral dialogue.

The coverage in the Chinese official media and commentaries by Chinese experts appear to reflect the gradualism in Bejing’s rejig of its policy frame towards Pakistan after 26/11 happened. Until the time Pakistan admitted that the terrorists were from Pakistan, the dispatches from Islamabad in ‘Peoples Daily’ tended to further Pak’s denial mode. For instance, the People’s Daily correspondent made it a point to say Kasab was seen wearing ‘read thread’ on his right wrist and as such he could be of a Hindu terrorist group that had carried out the attack Mumbai’s two famous hotels, Taj and Oberai, and a Jewish religious house besides the local railway terminus.

The Peoples’ Daily further carried stories that the Mumbai attacks effectively put the Indian dreams of an ‘economic power’ into a kind of back burner.  It said that it would be very difficult for India to put its act together to sustain GDP growth rate as per projections.

Other reports highlighted the glee among Chinese experts’ who had tried to read the Indian pulse. Their questions to the Indian academic community, according to an Indian scholar, who was one of the many approached by them, were designed to find out whether there were differences within the Indian government over the course of action against Pakistan and whether the public is really behind the UPA-led government.  Another issue they were serious of knowing was whether India was upping the ante at the instance of the US and whether the latter will restrain India from going to war with Pakistan.

Sinologists don’t see any thing abnormal in such queries coming from Beijing. These (enuiries) seem to be quite normal as the China wants to get a real hang of the situation to formulate its own position and to advice Pakistan on the action.

Pakistan may remain sentimental about its ties with China but Beijing’s policies are guided as much by realism as by the interests of a long term player.  It may resolve its policy dichotomy by the time President Zardari visits China later this month, his second since coming to power ten- months back, diplomatic sources remarked.

Pakistan is hoping the Chinese to come to their rescue in the event of hostilities with India but the latter might not go beyond some qualified assurances; that puts Islamabad in a quandary because it cannot forget the lessons of 1971 and Kargil war alike.