by Tika R Pradhan in The Kathmandu Post, Dec 31, 2022
On Friday, CPN-UML chair KP Sharma Oli visited Baluwatar early in the morning to discuss a power-sharing deal and the government’s way ahead with Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.
The meeting took place a day after coalition leaders formed a high-level mechanism as an oversight body to advise the government. He, however, was the one who had rejected Dahal’s proposal to form such a mechanism when the former was prime minister in 2017 with the support of CPN (Maoist Centre), claiming it was against the constitution and was not the need of time.
There is, however, a major difference between the government led by Oli five years ago and the one Dahal is now leading. After the formation of the Oli government in 2017, the electoral alliance partners UML and Maoist Center merged into one Nepal Communist Party.
Dahal, the chair of the distant third party in Parliament, is heavily dependent on UML chief Oli’s support to run the government. His nod to the high-level political mechanism under Oli could be a case in point of how dependent he is on the largest coalition partner.
“Dahal will have to spend most of his time satisfying the demands and conditions of coalition partners on whose support the government will depend,” said Jhalak Subedi, a political analyst, who has for long been following left politics. “First we need to see how his Cabinet performs as he may face a tough time handling newer and inexperienced faces in it.”
It was just a year and a half ago that Dahal had led a campaign to topple Oli’s government and to split the UML party. Oli too routinely trashed Dahal in public. The old animosities could resurface at any time.
Also this time, Dahal has with him newer outfits like the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) led by the journalist-turned politician Rabi Lamichhane, and two regional forces—the CK Raut-led Janamat Party and Resham Chaudhary’s Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP). Then there is the right-leaning Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).
Dahal will have to strike a delicate balance between all alliance partners, experts say.
The RPP has said that it won’t join the government until Dahal agrees to declare a public holiday on January 11 (Paush 27) on the occasion of Prithvi Jayanti, the birth anniversary of Prithvi Narayan Shah, the founder of modern Nepal.
On Friday, the NUP handed a memorandum to Prime Minister Dahal demanding withdrawal of the cases against its leaders, including Resham Chaudhary, and disclosure of the Lal Commission and Deviram Commission reports on the excesses of the government security forces during the Madhesh movement in the run-up to the promulgation of the 2015 constitution.
NUP spokesperson Damodar Pandit stated that the government should take the initiative to bring a law to release political prisoners.
Earlier this month, President Bidya Devi Bhandari had refused to endorse an ordinance presented by the previous Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government to ensure their release.
The NUP leaders have said that the party would neither join the Sudurpaschim government, or the federal government for that matter, unless the political prisoners are first released. In the Sudurpaschim province, the party, with its seven seats, will have a crucial role in the formation of any government.
Dahal’s performance this time could also be determined by the strength of his secretariat. During his second stint as prime minister, a strong secretariat led by his son Prakash Dahal had helped him a lot.
“But his son is no more and neither is the secretariat as powerful now,” said Subedi.
Maoist Centre leaders also feel Dahal could this time struggle to do much as prime minister as he needs to spend most of his time managing his ruling partners and he also has the challenge of standing out among the newer political forces.
But some leaders said Dahal should respond constructively to the suggestions of the newer parties as well as the RPP, incorporating such suggestions in the government’s agenda and working to ensure their implementation.
“Many of the issues raised by our coalition partners like the RPP and the RSP resemble the ones our party has been raising. The prime minister should have no problem addressing them,” said Ram Karki, a standing committee member of the Maoist Centre. “Dahal should also learn to work with the leaders who criticise him, if he wants to make his term fruitful.”
Some observers think that the bigger challenge for Dahal would be to manage Oli, who will pull the government’s strings from behind the scenes.
“Though Dahal seems to be ruling the country, in reality, Oli is the one in the driver’s seat. This time, Dahal has become a bit of Oli’s subordinate as he can’t take any important decision without consulting the latter,” said Hemraj Bhandari, a former Maoist Centre leader. “Without appeasing Oli, Dahal cannot stay in power even for a single day.”
Not only Bhandari, another civil society leader, Shyam Shrestha, a political analyst who is close to the Maoist party, thinks along similar lines. “The fact is, if Oli decides to pull out of the government, Dahal loses his governing majority,” Shrestha said.
Prior to his elevation to the prime minister’s chair, Dahal had said that he would make two radical moves—the first, form a strong anti-corruption commission and start investigating those who have amassed huge amounts of money and second, he would kickstart large development projects. Yet he could struggle in both these ventures.
“Dahal will have to spend most of his time trying to save the current coalition. Yet he cannot live up to the people’s growing expectations just by giving continuity to the coalition and his government,” said Shrestha. “Moreover, even if he wants to, Oli won’t allow him to take the kind of radical steps he wants to in order to leave behind a strong legacy as prime minister.”
https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2022/12/31/can-dahal-succeed-as-prime-minister-of-a-fragile-coalition
