The author is director of Center for Asia-Pacific Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
Myanmese President U Htin Kyaw paid a visit to New Delhi late last month, the first time a top-level official from the country has visited India since the National League for Democracy (NLD) came to power in Myanmar. Quite a number of agreements in many fields were inked during his tour and India promised whole-hearted support for Nay Pyi Taw in the latter’s development “at every step of the way.”
This assurance was voiced by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his meeting with Myanmar State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi on the sidelines of the 14th India-ASEAN-summits-2016.html” target=”_blank”>ASEAN Summit and the 11th East Asia Summit in Vientiane by saying that “India would always stand with the government and people of Myanmar as the new government strives to fulfill the aspirations of the people.”
This is believed by Indian strategic scholars to be a way for New Delhi to compete with Beijing for more influence in Myanmar. Such a trend can date back to the period of military rule in Myanmar. At the beginning of the 21st century, when Nay Pyi Taw was under sanctions from the West, India had already adjusted its policy toward Myanmar and normalized their bilateral relationship. By then, New Delhi had not only provided economic assistance to the country, but also carried out a variety of defense cooperation measures with Nay Pyi Taw.
Myanmar plays a vital role in India’s Act East policy as its closest Southeast Asian neighbor. Bordering Myanmar, India’s northeastern region has long suffered from chaos and an underdeveloped economy. Under such a background, New Delhi needs to enhance its collaboration with Myanmar in border areas for economic reasons.
More importantly, India sees the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between Beijing and Nay Phi Taw as a threat. It hence feels the urge to take the offensive by cozying up to Myanmar in order to gain more influence in the country as leverage to counterbalance China.
After striking a balance between its two biggest neighbors for years, Myanmar’s foreign policy is believed to be effective.
Ties between Beijing and Nay Pyi Taw have always been close, but even so, India has initiated all kinds of interactions with Myanmar for quite some time, including joint programs over infrastructure work such as highway and hydropower stations.
Compared with Beijing, New Delhi currently enjoys an advantage in strengthening its ties with Myanmar. Previously, China strongly backed military rule in Myanmar while the West vigorously ostracized it.
Yet now, after Nay Pyi Taw’s political and power shift, the nation’s domestic public opinion holds a relatively negative attitude toward Beijing. Therefore, in terms of ideology, India seems to have fewer barriers to developing its relations with Myanmar.
It is worth noting that the China-initiated Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor has not witnessed any major step forward in the past three-plus years. On the one hand, New Delhi has been acting negatively toward it. But on the other, it was stuck due to turmoil in Myanmar. The situation in Myanmar is calming down for the moment. But there is still no signal of any development of the joint project. In the meantime, however, India-Myanmar collaborations in bordering regions are proceeding at an accelerating pace.
In years to come, the Myanmese government might have more expectations in India over economic and trade cooperation, defense collaboration and joint works to expand connectivity with neighboring countries. China is of course of great importance to Myanmar, but Nay Pyi Taw will not put all its eggs in one basket. While New Delhi has always hoped it can draw Myanmar over to its own sphere of influence, the former is thus another basket for the latter to put its eggs in.
Nevertheless, Indian economic might is limited. The economic and trade volume between China and Myanmar as well as Chinese investment in Myanmar have long left India’s far behind. Meanwhile, China and Myanmar share a land border over 2,000 kilometers long. It is hence crucial for Nay Pyi Taw’s national interests to maintain friendly relations with Beijing.
Situated on either side of Myanmar, China and India will keep competing for more influence in the country. Such a reality will long exist. Given Nay Pyi Taw’s strategic geographical location, the nation will neither fully tilt toward China nor lurch toward India, but will only continue its balancing act and try to pursue friendly policies with the two big neighbours for the sake of gaining the most benefits. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1006328.shtml
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