by Kunal Purohit in SCMP, 28 Dec 2022
The rise of a veteran Maoist leader to become Nepal’s new prime minister is likely to inject “more momentum” into the country’s China ties while also checking American influence in the region, analysts said, after communist parties came together on Sunday to oust the previous US-aligned government.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal, more popularly known as Prachanda – meaning fearless – ditched his alliance partner the Nepali Congress (NC) to install a communist-led government in Kathmandu with rival KP Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist).
The previous government led by the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba was seen to be pursuing stronger ties with India and the US, while insisting that Nepal would prefer “grants, instead of commercial loans”, interpreted as a veiled critique of China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects in the country.
Oli, once labelled a “pro-China” leader by Chinese tabloids, has been fiercely critical of New Delhi and is seen to favour a greater role for Beijing in Kathmandu. Prachanda has called for “equal ties” with both China and India, instead of insisting on a “special relationship” with Delhi as Nepali politicians have done in the past.
While there are questions surrounding the new alliance’s stability – Prachanda and Oli had a public falling out just last year – the new government will enjoy a minimum of two years in power if it establishes an electoral majority in parliament, under Nepal’s constitution.
Before Prachanda and Oli fell out, Chinese officials had made attempts to push both leaders to reconcile their differences but failed.
Analysts say the new political arrangement in the strategically located Himalayan country is likely to make Beijing “thrilled”, while Delhi and Washington are left squirming in their seats as the fate of their future ties with Kathmandu look more uncertain.
“China will definitely be happy at this turn of events,” said Sangeeta Thapliyal, a professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University’s (JNU) Centre for Inner Asian Studies.
“China is a lot more comfortable working with Prachanda and Oli. Firstly, they were able to sign many trade and infrastructure related projects with Nepal during Oli’s previous regime,” she said. “In addition, there is a perception that the NC is pro-India.”
Thapliyal’s views are echoed in Kathmandu, where analysts believe the new regime will inject “more momentum” into China-Nepal ties.
“In the earlier regime, there was a sense of hesitancy in expediting belt and road projects,” said Santosh Sharma Paudel, the head of the Centre for Strategic Affairs at the Kathmandu-based Nepal Institute for Policy Research think tank.
“Now, there will be a lot more talk about the Belt and Road Initiative as well as about building more railway links to China,” he said. “I expect the Belt and Road Initiative to take momentum in Nepal now.”
Almost on cue, a six-member strong Chinese delegation landed in Kathmandu on Tuesday, a day after Prachanda took office, to kick-start work on conducting a feasibility study for building a belt and road rail link between the two countries.
Prachanda-Oli: India’s ‘least best’ choice?
A former Indian diplomat involved in Nepal issues, who requested anonymity, said the new arrangement in Kathmandu was India’s “least best” choice.
“New Delhi would have wanted the NC in power and if not NC, then Prachanda in alliance with NC,” the diplomat said. “Now, India will have to be careful about what the new regime does and how its interests are protected.”
In his first term as prime minister, Prachanda in 2008 broke with tradition by going to China rather than India for his maiden state visit. But this time around, Prachanda has sought to assuage Delhi’s concerns.
On Tuesday, in an interview with Indian media outlet ABP News, Prachanda said he was “not against India” and he wanted to “forget old disputes and move forward”.
As prime minister, Oli had pursued closer ties with Beijing and signed a key pact – the Transit and Transportation Agreement – that allowed Kathmandu access to Chinese sea and land ports and ended its sole dependence on India for its trade.
In 2017, Nepal also joined the Belt and Road Initiative, a sign analysts saw as the landlocked country seeking alternatives to India for its trade and logistics. In 2020, Oli’s government took an aggressive stance on its border dispute with India by issuing a new map that claimed contested territories – administered by Delhi – as its own.
But some in Delhi believe that there might not be a major shift in Kathmandu’s foreign policy.
“New Delhi knows Prachanda very well and he is someone who has shown deep engagement and cooperation with India before,” said Ranjit Rae, a former Indian ambassador to Nepal and author of Kathmandu Dilemma: Resetting India-Nepal ties.
“But the bottom line is that New Delhi will be ready to work with whichever government comes to power,” he added.
Thapliyal, the JNU professor, said that Delhi had changed its approach towards Kathmandu. “Rather than being seen getting involved in domestic politics, India is focusing a lot more on tangible outcomes like infrastructure from connectivity links to power generation,” she said. “This approach is unlikely to meet rough weather from any regime, no matter who is in power.”
Nepal to expect more high-level Chinese visits
Some analysts believe that Kathmandu’s ties with Washington might be susceptible for a reset.
Under the Deuba administration, Nepal’s parliament in February ratified a US$500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant from the US government meant to give a boost to Nepal’s power sector and connectivity. This prompted a sharp response from Beijing, which called the grant “a gift with an ultimatum” and the result of “coercive diplomacy”.
But Nepal decided to walk away from a US security cooperation programme that facilitates “military-to-military engagements in support of defence goals”. This move was seen widely as Kathmandu’s way to assuage Chinese concerns about America’s growing footprint in the region.
With Prachanda – who had threatened, before backtracking, to walk out of the alliance if the Deuba government ratified the MCC – now in power, analysts say it remains to be seen how the new government will handle ties with the US.
Oli had criticised the previous Deuba government for allowing US special representative on Tibetan affairs Uzra Zeya’s May visit to Tibetan refugee camps in Nepal, and questioned Nepal’s commitment to the one-China policy.
“Is Nepal for the one-China policy or not? Is Nepal committed to the policy of not allowing Nepal’s land to be used against neighbours?” Oli asked in parliament in May.
Paudel, the Kathmandu-based analyst, said high-level US delegations were unlikely to continue under the new administration. “The likes of Zeya will find it tougher to make such visits under this Prachanda-Oli government.”
Instead, visits from Beijing might be more frequent. “We should expect a lot more high-level delegations from China finding their way to Kathmandu now,” he said.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3204722/nepal-china-ties-get-happy-boost-new-leftist-pm-india-and-us-wary?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage
