PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s ‘surprise’ of dissolving the Punjab and KP assemblies while moving out of the Balochistan and Sindh houses simultaneously will be a cause for concern for the government going forward. The issue of PTI resignations from the National Assembly is already in flux, but while the NA can be functional without proper opposition in place, PTI’s exit from the provincial houses will be much more troublesome for the PDM alliance.
The federal government has already announced that it plans on staying in power till its term ends around August next year, which is why functional provincial governments are needed for a better part of the year for critical functions. Imran Khan’s nuclear option will cost a hefty penny to rectify however, if all exits from the assemblies are followed through upon.
Since the PTI’s announcement on Friday, the ECP has already stated that it is constitutionally bound to conduct polling on the vacant seats, and by-polls in the provincial assemblies would not mean that the National Assembly also needs to follow through on elections. But even if possible, this is a nightmare organisationally because of general elections in the same year. But beyond the ECP, the government will also suffer, because it would have to turn its attention toward campaigning rather than the difficult business of running the country.
We are already seeing the PDM government make the same economic concessions in power as PTI—often choosing a populist policy decision to win over the support base rather than making the difficult and unpopular choices required to improve the overall outlook. All of this means that if PTI does follow through on its threat, government or not, the actual business of governance will take a backseat regardless.
In Punjab, the PDM alliance is already cooking up a plan to file a trust or no-trust motion against the Chief Minister before he can dissolve the assemblies. The PTI alliance does not have a large strength in numbers and a trust motion would allow for the PDM alliance to win over dissidents and get them to abstain in their support of Pervaiz Elahi. The equation is much more complicated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) where PTI’s majority is nearly absolute. There would be no option other than to hold by-elections in around 150 seats in the province if Imran Khan follows through on his threat.
If by-elections are to be held in any of the provinces, it will be little more than an exercise in futility, because wherever PTI wins, it can announce resignations all over again. But even if general elections were to be held as soon as possible as demanded by PTI, the results would not be accepted by any stakeholder (PTI included) due to a host of reasons, not least of them being that the census is yet to be conducted with fresh delimitations planned.
With 2023 around the corner, it is expected that Pakistan’s policymaking in all spheres is going to be detrimentally affected as a result of this tussle in the coming year.
https://www.nation.com.pk/29-Nov-2022/exit-strategy
