By Anwar Iqbal in The Dawn, Mar 14
WASHINGTON, March 13: The blasts in Lahore are the last desperate measures of pro-Al Qaeda militants who are now being abandoned by the Taliban, diplomatic sources told Dawn.
The sources also confirmed a Los Angeles Times report, published on Saturday, that the Taliban militants in Fata were now refusing to collaborate with Al Qaeda fighters.
The Taliban were declining to provide shelter or assist in attacks in Afghanistan even in return for payment, the report said.
“Yes, Pakistani intelligence sources also confirm this assessment,” said a senior diplomatic source who did not want to be identified.
“There is a sizeable shift away from Al Qaeda,” he said. “Very few are left who still support Al Qaeda. The vast majority is distancing itself from them.”
The pro-Al Qaeda militants had been weakened so much in the tribal areas that they were shifting their people to other areas inside Pakistan, he said. “In Lahore, they used the Punjabi Taliban to cause Friday’s blasts,” said the diplomatic source.
“These are the leftovers of the pro-Al Qaeda militants and these are last desperate measures.”
The militants, he said, would ultimately be forced to give up fighting or be eradicated. “They have nowhere to go.”
The diplomatic source, like the Los Angeles Times, credited the Pakistani military operations in Fata for this shift in sentiments against Al Qaeda. “Their operations have been very successful,” he said.
The source, however, disagreed with the suggestion that the Haqqani group was still effectively supporting Al Qaeda.
“The Haqqani network is not as effective as the media make it to be. They too have been weakened. The Pakistani military forces are on a winning streak and there’s no exaggeration in it,” he said.
Quoting US military and counter-terrorism officials, the Los Angeles Times reported that the Afghan Taliban began disassociating themselves from Al Qaeda because they feared that links to the international terrorist network threatened their long-term survival.
Pakistan’s stepped up military campaign, along with intensified US drone strikes in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions, had made it riskier for the Taliban to harbour Al Qaeda fighters, the report said.
The newspaper speculated that Al Qaeda’s utility to the Taliban could also be ending. “In the past, Al Qaeda was able to offer the Taliban bomb-making experts, experienced fighters and large amounts of cash for operations in Afghanistan in return for haven in Taliban-controlled areas near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border”, but with Al Qaeda’s resources and operational capacity dwindling, it is perhaps too risky for the Taliban to cooperate with them, the report said.
However, the Pakistan-based Haqqani network — a group active in the Afghan insurgency — maintained links to Al Qaeda, despite suffering heavy casualties from drone strikes, the report added.
“Al Qaeda fighters are in some cases being excluded from villages and other areas near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border where they once received sanctuary,” US intelligence officials told the Times.
Al Qaeda’s attempts to restore its dwindling presence in Afghanistan were also running into problems, the officials told the paper.
According to the report, Al Qaeda is believed to have fewer than 100 operatives still in Afghanistan.
Last year, the organisation began offering stipend to Afghans who would escort its operatives into the country, but there were indications that many Taliban were refusing this inducement, one US official said.
The Al Qaeda-Taliban rupture has led to a debate within the US government about whether there are ways to exploit any fissures. One idea under consideration is to reduce drone strikes against Taliban factions whose members are shunning contacts with Al Qaeda. “The arrest in recent months of several top Afghan Taliban leaders may also be leading some Taliban to reassess their ties to Al Qaeda in hopes of easing pressure from the Inter-Services Intelligence,” the report said. http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/taliban-distancing-themselves-from-al-qaeda-experts-430
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