The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs.
The latest political gathering in Lahore on Sunday by Pakistan’s opposition parties creates the danger of prematurely emboldening Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government.
The event was followed by a number of government leaders claiming victory on the grounds that the occasion attracted a smaller than expected crowd.
And, subsequently, long-term watchers of similar gatherings were left baffled when opposition leaders later claimed Sunday’s event to be among the largest in the history of Pakistan’s second largest city and the country’s undisputed political nerve centre. Its clear that both sides need to take an urgent reality check.
As the government and the opposition lock horns in exchanging claims versus counter claims over the size of the event, Prime Minister Khan’s Pakistan PTI faces the prospect of a dangerous miscalculation.
As the opposition prepares for a protest march to Islamabad late in January or early February, its possible that Khan and his team members may well conclude that the worst challenge for their future is over. If so, nothing could be further from the truth.
On the one hand, the opposition event on Sunday notwithstanding, parties opposed to Khan have already served notice of their plans to return with a vengeance. Come January and the opposition will set plans in motion to march towards Islamabad, in a bid to paralyze Khan’s government.
In seeking to intensify their pressure, the opposition parties have also announced plans to go ahead with en-masse resignations of their representatives from Pakistan’s federal and provincial legislatures. Coupled with the coming protests, the large scale resignations will be meant to force an end to Khan’s tenure, just over two years following his victory of 2018.
On the other hand., however, Khan’s ability to steer the course remains closely tied to the most controversial element of his government — the matter of its performance. For months, the prime minister has faced recurring criticism over the performance of his hand-picked politicians, both in Islamabad and in the province of Punjab.
Punjab remains Pakistan’s most populous province with a population of more than 125 million or about 60 percent of the country’s population. It also remains the biggest contributor to Pakistan’s agricultural sector, arming the province with the reputation of being the country’s undisputed bread basket.
On other fronts, notably industrial output, Punjab makes a critically large contribution to the nation. In a year when the coronavirus pandemic has pulled down Pakistan’s prospects for economic growth, there are indeed glaring gaps in the government’s own performance. As Khan and his team members pat themselves on the back for overseeing an economic recovery, independently assessed the record remains very mixed.
Across the rural heartlands of Punjab, full or partial failures of key crops have had a crippling effect on the agricultural economy. And, while the government has paid much by way of lip service to the cause of promoting an agriculture-led economic turn-around, farmers are still awaiting support to lift their fortunes.
Meanwhile, setbacks in meeting targets in key areas like lifting tax collections, curbing inflation and cutting large losses in sectors like energy have together practically stalled a $6 billion loan from the IMF. Unless Prime Minister Khan can focus on giving Pakistan a qualitatively new direction armed with a robust reform agenda, the future is in danger of becoming just more lacklustre. And with overall global conditions remaining as uncertain as the recent past due to the fallout from Covid-19, the coming challenges perhaps remain more unpredictable than ever before in human history.
With the outlook as potentially bleak as in 2020, a successful push by Khan against the political opposition is ridden with more dangers for Pakistan than before. The biggest risk from growing political uncertainty stems from a further breakdown of an already weak governance, policy and administrative environment.
Going forward, it would not only be in the interest of Khan and his government to negotiate with the opposition and avert a coming clash, it would be in the interest of Pakistan as the country confronts the fallout from the deadly Covid-19 pandemic that has more than partially paralyzed the world.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/759195-no-imminent-victory
No imminent victory: by Farhan Bokhari in The News, Dec 16, 2020
The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs.
The latest political gathering in Lahore on Sunday by Pakistan’s opposition parties creates the danger of prematurely emboldening Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government.
The event was followed by a number of government leaders claiming victory on the grounds that the occasion attracted a smaller than expected crowd.
And, subsequently, long-term watchers of similar gatherings were left baffled when opposition leaders later claimed Sunday’s event to be among the largest in the history of Pakistan’s second largest city and the country’s undisputed political nerve centre. Its clear that both sides need to take an urgent reality check.
As the government and the opposition lock horns in exchanging claims versus counter claims over the size of the event, Prime Minister Khan’s Pakistan PTI faces the prospect of a dangerous miscalculation.
As the opposition prepares for a protest march to Islamabad late in January or early February, its possible that Khan and his team members may well conclude that the worst challenge for their future is over. If so, nothing could be further from the truth.
On the one hand, the opposition event on Sunday notwithstanding, parties opposed to Khan have already served notice of their plans to return with a vengeance. Come January and the opposition will set plans in motion to march towards Islamabad, in a bid to paralyze Khan’s government.
In seeking to intensify their pressure, the opposition parties have also announced plans to go ahead with en-masse resignations of their representatives from Pakistan’s federal and provincial legislatures. Coupled with the coming protests, the large scale resignations will be meant to force an end to Khan’s tenure, just over two years following his victory of 2018.
On the other hand., however, Khan’s ability to steer the course remains closely tied to the most controversial element of his government — the matter of its performance. For months, the prime minister has faced recurring criticism over the performance of his hand-picked politicians, both in Islamabad and in the province of Punjab.
Punjab remains Pakistan’s most populous province with a population of more than 125 million or about 60 percent of the country’s population. It also remains the biggest contributor to Pakistan’s agricultural sector, arming the province with the reputation of being the country’s undisputed bread basket.
On other fronts, notably industrial output, Punjab makes a critically large contribution to the nation. In a year when the coronavirus pandemic has pulled down Pakistan’s prospects for economic growth, there are indeed glaring gaps in the government’s own performance. As Khan and his team members pat themselves on the back for overseeing an economic recovery, independently assessed the record remains very mixed.
Across the rural heartlands of Punjab, full or partial failures of key crops have had a crippling effect on the agricultural economy. And, while the government has paid much by way of lip service to the cause of promoting an agriculture-led economic turn-around, farmers are still awaiting support to lift their fortunes.
Meanwhile, setbacks in meeting targets in key areas like lifting tax collections, curbing inflation and cutting large losses in sectors like energy have together practically stalled a $6 billion loan from the IMF. Unless Prime Minister Khan can focus on giving Pakistan a qualitatively new direction armed with a robust reform agenda, the future is in danger of becoming just more lacklustre. And with overall global conditions remaining as uncertain as the recent past due to the fallout from Covid-19, the coming challenges perhaps remain more unpredictable than ever before in human history.
With the outlook as potentially bleak as in 2020, a successful push by Khan against the political opposition is ridden with more dangers for Pakistan than before. The biggest risk from growing political uncertainty stems from a further breakdown of an already weak governance, policy and administrative environment.
Going forward, it would not only be in the interest of Khan and his government to negotiate with the opposition and avert a coming clash, it would be in the interest of Pakistan as the country confronts the fallout from the deadly Covid-19 pandemic that has more than partially paralyzed the world.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/759195-no-imminent-victory
Published in Pak Media comment and Pakistan