The writer is a columnist and author of You Rise Today
Pakistan’s democratic setup has had a rocky relationship with the military for many decades. It is more like a musical chairs program, where both the political leaders and military heads have been eyeing their chance to take the seat or change the person sitting on it. The most recent military rule of Pervez Musharraf that ended in August 2008, was the fourth under a dictator in Pakistan’s history. However, an interesting pattern is visible if we look at the duration of the democratically elected regimes of Pakistan and the military rulers who have imposed their will.
Pakistan had eleven years of democracy from 1947 to 1958. Then came the first military rule of Ayub Khan from October 1958 to March 1969, which lasted for 10 years. It was followed by the military rule of Yahya Khan from March 1969 to December 1971, which was of 2 years.
This means that democracy only prevailed for 12 years (1947 to 1958) before it was derailed by military rule in 1958. Democracy again prevailed from 1971 to 1978, for a period of 8 years, before General Zia-ul-Haq imposed his hegemony from 1978 to 1988 for a period of 10 years.
This was followed by another wave of democracy from 1998 to 2001, for three years, before Pervez Musharraf took hold of the government for 9 years from October 1999 to August 2008. Since then, Pakistan has had a democracy which is entering into its tenth year.
Now look at the numbers and you will be amazed to see a pattern. Democracy (1947-1958) for 11 years; Military rule (1958 — 1971) for 12 years; Democracy (1971 — 1978) for eight years; Military rule (1978 — 1988) for 10 years; Democracy (1999-2001) for three years; Military rule (1999 — 2008) for nine years; Democracy (2008 — 2018) for 10 years. Generally speaking, based on this pattern, we see that after almost every decade, the military has formally and officially stepped into the political fabric of Pakistan and changed the very dimension of democracy.
Although it is a common belief that the military establishment has always governed the state of affairs of Pakistan by monitoring scenarios and implementing plans from behind the curtain, the military has imposed its dictation and dictatorship over Pakistan on four occasions through Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Zia-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf.
Recently, during the 2018 general elections of Pakistan, Imran Khan, chief of Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf, emerged victorious, and has now taken office as the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan. Although his 22-year struggle to arrive at this summit of his political career is being recognised by the world, there are speculations that the military establishment of Pakistan has been behind the steady rise of Imran Khan. How much of it is true is yet to be seen. However, based on the above-mentioned patterns, it is evident that Pakistan’s military establishment has made its presence felt after nearly 10 years of democratic governments enjoying their stay in Islamabad. The last military rule of Pervez Musharraf ended in 2008. Adding ten years to it gives us 2018. We are halfway through the year 2018 and Imran Khan is the new Prime Minister. You call these patterns speculations, estimates or predictions, they happened so they do have some value. If this is the case, then the days of the Imran Khan’s government are already numbered. Only time will tell if the military will step out from behind the curtain because 2018 is the tenth year of democracy and as the patterns suggest, this is the time when the military’s boots begin to echo from the coasts of Karachi, to the peaks of the Himalayas. Let’s see what the future holds for the new government. https://dailytimes.com.pk/297624/is-another-takeover-around-the-corner/
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