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Talks threatened : edit in Daily Times, Feb 29, 2016

The first week of March is supposed to see Round Two of direct talks between the Afghanistan government and the Taliban, hosted and faciliated by Pakistan. However, while the quadrilateral group (Afghanistan, Pakistan, the US and China) has met several times to talk peace, it has so far done so without any inputs from the Taliban. So while some tenuous consensus seemed to have been arrived at by the four countries, the Taliban are not beholden to that consensus and continue to march to the beat of their own drum. The Taliban have not stopped their wave of attacks on Afghan soil. The latest instance of such violence was witnessed on 27 February as at least 21 people were killed and dozens wounded in two suicide attacks in different areas of Afghanistan on Saturday — attacks that were claimed by the Taliban, thus putting the proposed talks in Islamabad in jeopardy. Attacks like these make Kabul’s attempts to nudge the Taliban to the negotiation table increasingly untenable and politically costly. These continued attacks will also fan the anti-Pakistan sentiment prevalent in the Afghan establishment, and pile pressure on Ashraf Ghani’s government, as Pakistan is seen as having sway over the Taliban and not doing enough to stop these deadly attacks.

The Taliban’s strategy remains inscrutable. This wave of attacks has been interpreted variously as a ploy to gain the upper hand in the negotitations or as evidence that the Taliban leadership believes that it can simply run over the Afghan security apparatus and a depleted contingent of foreign troops without the need to engage in talks or as simply proof that the Taliban no longer exists as a collective entity and has split into various subgroups with a divided leadership pursuing contradictory goals. Regardless of which combination of the three interpretations is true, the existing facts on the ground make the prospect of these talks happening, let alone succceeding, precarious. While it may seem as if a divided Taliban is good news for the nation states currently at war with the terrorist group, the difficulty to bring all the splinter groups under one roof is enormous, and almost dooms the peace talks, even if they transpire, as groups not party to the negotiations will pursue their own agendas regardless of what is agreed in Islamabad. Let’s not forget the looming spectre of these Taliban groups joining the ranks of the Islamic State (IS), an entity far worse than even the Taliban in its ideology and practices, in response to the peace process. A more clearheaded plan is needed to preempt and prevent that monstrous eventuality. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/29-Feb-2016/talks-threatened

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