External debt to rise by 43pc in five years: The Dawn, Jan 11

By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD Pakistan’s total external debt is likely to grow alarmingly by more than 43 per cent over the next five years, to about $73 billion in 2015-16 from about $50.76 billion early this year.

According a report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the debt will increase by about 13 per cent, or $6.4 billion, to $57.1 billion by the end of the current fiscal year and is estimated to increase by $7 billion, or 12.3 per cent, to $64 billion by the end of the next fiscal year.

IMF’s estimate suggests that the external debt will increase by another $2 billion in 2011-12 and cross $72.6 billion in 2015-16.

The public and publicly guaranteed debts, including IMF loans, are estimated to increase by 45 per cent from $47.26 billion on June 30, 2009, to more than $68.1 billion in 2015-16. The amount will increase to $53.3 billion during the current fiscal year and $59.9 billion by end of next year.

The total medium- and long-term debt which stood at about $41.5 billion at the end of June last year, will increase to $48.2 billion next year and reach $67.6 billion in 2015-16 — an increase of about 40 per cent.
The Asian Development Bank will have the single largest share in the external debt, which will increase from $9 billion in July last year to about $15.8 billion in 2015, by more than 75 per cent in five years.

The World Bank debt will increase by about 29 per cent from $12 billion to $15.5 billion by 2015.

Bilateral debt is likely to increase by 96 per cent from the current $16 billion to $31.28 billion in 2015-16.

However, the IMF believes that the country’s external loan is sustainable; the debt stock will remain moderate when compared with the size of the economy and external debt servicing will remain manageable.

The analysis is based on the forecast that the external debt stock which stands at 27 per cent of the GDP would peak at 34.3 per cent in 2011-12 and then start subsiding, to reach 31 per cent in 2015-16.

The estimates may change if underlying assumptions for economic growth, interest rate and external trade are not fulfilled.

The economic growth rate has been projected at three per cent this year, four per cent next year and 5.5 per cent in 2015-16.
An increase in debt takes place generally because of large fiscal and current accounts deficits, depreciation in exchange rate and uncontrolled borrowing.

In the medium term, such increases lead to a higher debt-servicing cost and restrict the government’s ability to improve the condition of the people.
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